As we head into a free agent frenzy that’s guaranteed to transform the NBA, its offseason
slogan should be “why not us?” The 2020 Finals are up for grabs, and many teams that will enter next year confident in their ability to win a playoff series can also fancy themselves as possible championship contenders. The playing field won’t be entirely level, but aggressive personnel moves that service the present will take precedence in a way we haven’t seen for quite some time.
In the NBA, as much as in life, unpredictability breeds two things: chaos and opportunity. This is the NBA’s “five percent theory” in action, a term outlined by Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey earlier this decade. “If you’ve got even a five percent chance to win the title — and that group includes a very small number of teams every year — you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title,” he said then.
Last year, four teams bought in: the Golden State Warriors, Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers. Everybody else was content with what they had, not believing Golden State was vulnerable enough to strike. Morey’s Rockets cut costs, and, with a stiff upper lip, the Boston Celtics gazed longingly at photos of Anthony Davis.
This year, many more teams will enter free agency believing they have at least a five percent shot at the crown. In the right circumstances, even the most shortsighted move should be forgiven. Now is not the time to be patient with ripening young talent or hoard future first-round picks that won’t turn into actual people for a few more years.
For the first time in at least a decade, the NBA has no boogeyman. The Warriors are depleted, with Kevin Durant’s ruptured Achilles eliminating his league-tilting talent. That leaves a vacuum at the top, and we may go most of the regular season without any team convincingly filling it. (Seriously, would you be one thousand percent blown away if the Portland Trail Blazers won it all? That’s the point.)
Furthermore, the shadow of the defending champion looms over everybody. Toronto’s successful trade for Kawhi Leonard may convince very good teams that they should also punt on arduous rebuilds or stagnant annual playoff runs before they fall victim to a system that increasingly fosters constant roster turnover. Even if the Raptors’ title happened in part thanks to bouncy buzzer-beaters and serious injuries, they proved it’s possible to catch lightning in a bottle. Patience is out. Risk is in.
As no team sits at the top, neither does any single player. The gap between LeBron James and everybody else closed dramatically this year. He will still be great, but elite talent at or near his level is now sprayed across the league. How many dudes can legitimately be referred to as a “top-5 player” next season? I count nine: LeBron, Kawhi, Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Damian Lillard. Any team with one of those players should feel like they have a chance to win it all.
Plus, there are a few unmentioned names also good enough to move the needle in a significant way: Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bradley Beal, Draymond Green, Kemba Walker, Al Horford, Mike Conley, Khris Middleton, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gobert, CJ McCollum, Devin Booker, Nikola Vucevic, LaMarcus Aldridge, D’Angelo Russell, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, and Blake Griffin.
Then there’s a few pups from recent draft classes who are poised to make Robert Pattinson-esque leaps into a more serious conversation: Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Jamal Murray, Pascal Siakam, De’Aaron Fox, Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Caris LeVert, Buddy Hield, Dejounte Murray, Jaylen Brown, and Zach Collins.
What makes all this even more meaningful? Free agency!
About 20 players mentioned above will need new contracts this summer or next. (Neither list includes Durant, whose eventual return reduces the likelihood of any one team establishing itself as unbeatable.) The Los Angeles Lakers are the only team with two heavy hitters, but one of them is entering his 17th season and neither competed in the playoffs last year. It’s also easy to imagine how that front office will bungle every chance to actually build a team around them between now and next July.
No other franchise has been able to collect three or four difference makers like the Warriors, or even LeBron’s Cavaliers, recently did. This is what the Collective Bargaining Agreement intended. The post-superteam NBA has arrived.
All that dispersed talent will infuse several teams with a confidence level that, put nicely, will be unearned. Winning a title is a gargantuan task. Even if no end-of-days titan lurks in Silicon Valley, assembling a roster that’s sturdy enough to rumble through four grueling rounds of playoff basketball is like playing Jenga while wearing a blindfold during an earthquake. The only guarantee is that all but one team will lose their final game, but that doesn’t mean trying won’t and shouldn’t be the ultimate goal.
Normally, this time of year, about five teams will see themselves as a serious contender without exiting the reality inhabited by the rest of us. But because this summer is different — and features a perfect storm of cap space, star free agents, and fluid hierarchy — at least a third of the league may be willing to spend money, part with first-round picks, and take a more aggressive stance than they otherwise would.
With no pecking order to speak of before free agency is settled, here are some candidates who can rationalize a run at the title in the NBA’s win-now era, ranked from most to least urgent.
Los Angeles Lakers
No team is more focused on today than the Lakers. LeBron is not getting any younger, and most of their future assets belong to the New Orleans Pelicans. They have no choice but to put all their eggs in 2020’s basket.
But with little clarity on the exact amount of money they’ll have to spend after the Davis trade, it’s difficult to figure out who they should target. If they can get Kawhi, Kyrie, or Kemba, they should knock themselves out. Less costly options include J.J. Redick, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, Wes Matthews, Darren Collison, and Isaiah Thomas.
Houston Rockets
Locker-room quarrels aside, Houston is a title contender at the end of the day because it employs James Harden. He’s a hyper-efficient megastar who doesn’t take games off and is undefeated in the playoffs against every team except Golden State since Chris Paul became a teammate.
Equally important: Morey is as hawkish as general managers come and knows how to maximize a championship window when he sees one. Houston went out of its way to slip under the luxury tax last year, and were eliminated with a humiliating 98.5 offensive rating in the final two crunch times of their season. Yet that decision puts them in position to spend now, despite being way over the salary cap.
If they can get off Paul’s contract, they will. If not, Clint Capela, P.J. Tucker, and Eric Gordonwill be available should a deal comes around that gives Houston trade chips to flip and/or some financial flexibility. You can bet Morey will turn over every rock in sight to upgrade the team. Jimmy Butler will reportedly be targeted in a sign-and-trade, but if that transaction proves to be too convoluted what if the Rockets go a different route by trading Gordon, Capela, and a lightly-protected 2020 first-round pick to Cleveland for Kevin Love, and then sign DeAndre Jordan with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception?
Other than the Lakers, Houston is best positioned to prioritize the present and pretend the future doesn’t exist. If they strike out in free agency, Morey will enter the trade game willing to offer as many future first-round picks as the league will allow, then cross that bridge when he gets there.
Milwaukee Bucks
Bringing back every piece from last year’s conference finalist won’t be easy, but the Bucks have options. Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon have extremely low cap holds relative to their value. If they’re somehow able to dump Ersan Ilyasova and reroute Jon Leuer elsewhere, they’ll have enough space to do something seismic. Like, say, sign Horford to a four-year max contract.
General manager Jon Horst may not be able to pull all that off — it’s not even clear if he even should. Still, if the Bucks dump Ilyasova’s $7 million expiring contract, they won’t have to go deep into the luxury tax, assuming it takes about $35 million annually to keep Brogdon and Lopez, and assuming Middleton receives a max contract.
Rolling it back may be enough to win it all. It could also eventually push Antetokounmpo out the door a couple summers from now if the team stagnates.
San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder
Even though both are likely to operate above the cap in July, any team with two all-stars close to their prime should be in win-now mode.
If Murray blows up next year, the Spurs should be more inclined to step outside their modus operandi and exchange assets (Derrick White and future first-round picks) to upgrade the here and now. If not, the Spurs are just as likely to swivel in the opposite direction and deal DeMar DeRozan and/or LaMarcus Aldridge to another contender that believes either one can put them over the edge.
Aldridge, in particular, is an ideal right-hand man or third wheel on a makeshift super team. What if the Spurs offer him and Bryn Forbes to the Thunder for Adams and 2019 first-round pick Darius Bazley? The Thunder are in financial ruin, so this move gives them a path to cap space in 2021. They don’t have a young talent like Murray on the roster, but if Sam Presti can finally find a shooter in free agency (prayer hands emoji), Paul George, Russell Westbrook, and Aldridge would be a fierce trio.
Portland Trail Blazers
They just made Western Conference Finals without one of their three best players. Lillard is the baddest dude in the NBA. McCollum single-handedly won a Game 7 on the road. Collinsshould make a leap in his third year. They don’t have any cap space and will likely lose a few key contributors from their playoff run (exchanging Evan Turner for Kent Bazemore likely means Rodney Hood is likely gone), but if Portland feels like it can break through to win it all, it has several expiring contracts it can attach to draft picks and/or young talent. (Love is one possible target.)
With new contracts for Lillard and McCollum on the horizon, now is the time for this organization to strike.
Utah Jazz
Trading for Mike Conley was a firm admission that a more dynamic offense is necessary if the Jazz want to do anything meaningful in the playoffs. Instead of running it back with supplements who either can’t shoot or are unable to create, they essentially swapped those out—Ricky Rubio, Jae Crowder, and Kyle Korver—for someone who can do both at an all-star level.
Conley is not Kyle Lowry and Mitchell is not Leonard, but both members of Utah’s new-look backcourt will be even more effective when able to avoid the other team’s best perimeter defender. Less will be more for Conely, who’ll look more like he’s 29 than 32, and for Mitchell, who no longer has to carry such a heavy offensive load.
If the Warriors won the title, with Durant earning his third straight Finals MVP and then re-signing for five years, would Utah have traded Crowder, Korver, Grayson Allen and two first-round draft picks for Conley? Perhaps they would’ve shopped around for another point guard in free agency instead. But the Warriors are in no position to run it back, so the Jazz went for it, forking over stuff that should yield more on-court production in 2-5 years for the chance to make a run now.
If they renounce their other free agents and waive Derrick Favors, they should have roughly $16 million to spend in free agency. Nikola Mirotic would be nice. How about Marcus Morris? Making the Finals before Gobert reaches his third contract should be the goal.
Boston Celtics
Losing Irving and Horford would normally be a disqualifying setback, but it shouldn’t be too hard for Boston to convince itself that everything is OK. They still have several critical pieces that dragged them to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2018, plus a healthier Gordon Hayward and an easy path to open up enough cap space to offer a max contract.
The Celtics will pursue meetings with Walker, Vucevic, and/or Russell, or spread that money around to non-max players with useful playoff experience–DeAndre Jordan, Derrick Favors, and Patrick Beverley come to mind. They can also use their cap space to absorb talented players from teams that are looking to get off money, loosen a positional logjam, or kick the can down the road. Names like Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari, Clint Capela, Myles Turner, Aaron Gordon, and Josh Richardson fit there.
If the Celtics’ Plan A and B don’t materialize, they can take unwanted contracts, add more assets, and wait for another capital-S superstar to hit the market. But the current roster is too good to tank or rebuild, so a win-now push should be the move. If Boston lands a max-contract player in free agency and storms out of the gates, it has several valuable draft picks to dangle for an upgrade at the trade deadline. Everything that broke terribly for them in 2019 can easily go the other way in 2020.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are at the mercy of their own free agents, but if Butler and/or Tobias Harris walk, they’d be in position to open up max space and go shopping. Just about everything written for the Celtics applies to Philly, as well, if those two and J.J. Redick leave. If they re-sign, Philly won’t have as many tradable assets as they’d like — those were used last season to get Butler and Harris — but aren’t entirely depleted of young talent. Three-point shooting continues to be a priority.
Denver Nuggets
Assuming they keep Paul Millsap, the Nuggets will enter next season with him, Jokic, Murray, a sensible supporting cast that has upside, continuity, the collective motivation spawned by postseason heartbreak, and intriguing trade assets. That’s a lot!
Denver has flirted with life as a real free agent destination for a couple years and they should finally feel confident enough to act like one. Pick up Millsap’s team option, attach a first-round pick to move Will Barton’s contract, and see what’s out there. If successful, a path to max space exists next summer, when someone like Draymond Green can enter the frame. But now we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
If Denver picks up Millsap’s option, it can stay under the luxury tax and still use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. (If they let Millsap go and dump Barton’s contract, they can open up about $30 million to spend elsewhere.) Will Denver care about next summer’s potential flexibility, which will evaporate once Murray’s next contract kicks in? How about packaging young Michael Porter Jr. for a win-now contributor?
The Nuggets have a bright future, but if they feel like another player or two can put them over the top in 2020, they shouldn’t wait.
Brooklyn Nets
If they essentially swap Russell for Irving and, say, Butler (who’s fond of Irving and privately viewed him as an ideal running mate before Irving’s tenure with the Celtics), that’s a beast. The Nets then would still have team-friendly contracts owed to Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert that they can either sit on and enjoy, or dangle for a talent upgrade.
Toronto Raptors or Los Angeles Clippers
Leonard’s decision will ultimately dictate which one of these teams can call itself a contender. If he re-signs with Toronto, this is self-explanatory. If he goes to the Clippers, they can easily clear enough space to add another star by unloading Gallinari.
Kawhi + another max player + Lou Williams/Montrezl Harrell pick-and-rolls + sophomore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + sophomore Landry Shamet + Doc Rivers + Miami’s 2021 first-round pick as a sexy trade chip = Unadulterated Terror.
Golden State Warriors
Without too many options and understandable exhaustion setting in, the Warriors may treat 2020 as a bridge year to recharge their batteries and make another run the following season. But wasting a nanosecond of Curry and Green’s primes doesn’t feel right, even if Durant re-signs. Count this organization out at your own peril.
New Orleans Pelicans
This team has lots of cap space and a straightforward sales pitch to any quality free agent: Look at our young talent, and help us shock the world.
New Orleans can sign someone like Horford to a contract that starts around $30 million, or be able to absorb Love’s deal, which starts at $28.9 million. Say they get Cleveland’s big man – who’s already very familiar with Pelicans Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin – for one of the Lakers picks snatched in the Anthony Davis trade. That’d give them a starting lineup of Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Love, with E’Twaun Moore, Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, and Jahlil Okafor off the bench. This is a very good rotation!
What if Williamson has the same immediate impact as Blake Griffin? What if New Orleans establishes itself as a playoff threat? What if a third star, (a la Beal) becomes available at the trade deadline? If all those things happen, the Pelicans have the contracts and assets to get that move done without surrendering any of the three rookies they just drafted.
A Beal-Love-Holiday-Williamson quartet is … enough to make the Finals? You can at least imagine it, which sums up the ridiculousness that’s about to unfold across the league.