By Jun Amigo
The fight between WBA champions Manny ‘Pacman’ Pacquiao and Keith ‘One
Time’ Thurman this weekend promises to be a barn burner. Both boxers
have shown they have the capability to come out victorious, but at the
same time exhibited vulnerabilities that could be exploited by either
boxer. It’s so close that most prominent boxing personalities can’t
definitively decide on a winner. It’s a pick ‘em fight where even the
betting favorites have swung from one fighter to another, initially
placing Pacquiao as the underdog but later installing him as a slight
favorite.
One strategy that could turn the tide, however, is if Thurman can
duplicate the counterpunch Juan Manuel Marquez threw in his knock-out
victory over Manny back in 2012. Many fans of Pacquiao have expressed
concerns over this, especially since it’s the only tactic that has
totally broken down the fighting senator since he became a polished
fighter. But the question remains: can Keith Thurman actually do it?
To answer that, we must first understand a little bit more about
counterpunching in boxing.
There are basically three types of counterpunching. First is the
‘Evasive Counter’. This type consists of several variations namely Pull,
Slip and Duck counter. This is employed by making your opponent miss,
which leaves him open for you to throw your own punch at him. Floyd
Mayweather is a master of this and has used it time and again to keep
his record immaculate.
The second type is called ‘Block and Counter’. Similar to the first one,
you let your opponent strike first before you throw your punch. The
difference, however, is that instead of evading the shot, you block it.
Fighters who use this technique frequently are Bernard Hopkins and
Muhammad Ali.
The principle for the third type is timing beats speed. Often called
Timing the Punch or Same Time Counter, this technique is used by slower
fighters to neutralize quicker adversaries. As you see your opponent
preparing to launch his blow, you time your counter a split second
earlier to catch him before he hits you. This is the riskiest to employ
among the three since a split-second off could spell disaster for the
counterpuncher. Done properly, however, it could change the course of a
bout. And this is why Juan Manuel Marquez used Timing the Punch to
flatten Pacquiao in their fourth encounter.
With this in mind, can Thurman time the Pacman as he is coming in? It’s
possible… but highly improbable.
While Thurman can counterpunch, he is more of an Evasive counterpuncher.
And not a fantastic one at that. He usually pulls back or slips to the
side of his opponent before countering them. Keith is somewhat effective
at this but we have yet to see him do this against a quick fighter.
Still, some may argue that Keith can train for Timing the Punch, which
he probably has. But bear in mind that it took Marquez 42 rounds to
finally connect that counter. Logically, Thurman, who is not used to
fighting fast opponents, will not be successful in timing a Pacquiao who
is now aware of such a tactic. Besides, he’s not the only one who
studied this style. Timothy Bradley, Adrien Broner, Jessie Vargas, Chris
Algieri all practiced this counter. But none of them came close to
having any success with it. There’s little reason to think Keith can do
any better.
But more than this, what makes it really doubtful for Thurman to
duplicate Marquez’s counter is that he seems to lack the mental
toughness to throw such a punch. As mentioned earlier, it’s a risky
technique, and although Keith has shown some grit in his fights, it does
not compare with the resolve of truly elite warriors. It’s more than
likely for him to just apply Evasive Counters than risk getting hit
flush using Timing the Punch.
Anything can happen in boxing. Thurman can still find other ways to win,
especially against an aging pugilist in Manny. Just don’t bet the house
on One Time duplicating the knockout punch of Marquez. The chances of
that happening is slim to none. Pac fans can rest a bit easier.
Photo by Mike Q