With the total 2019 domestic box office expected to ring up close to $11.4 billion according to Comscore, down 4% from last year’s banner $11.88B, and the forecast that 2020 will be down further due to fewer franchises on the schedule, various business publications will scream the headline
that the theatrical business is in the toilet in the booming streaming age of Netflix, Apple TV+ and Disney+, and HBO Max and NBCUniversal’s Peacock on the horizon.
What 2019 continued to underscore at the box office is the old adage of how product-driven the theatrical business is. In a year when exhibition was fueled on all cylinders to deliver the astronomical, biggest opening of all time stateside with Disney’s Avengers: Endgame ($357.1M) — which bested the previous record set by 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War by 39% — there’s no way one can say theatrical is dead. Even though Disney is boss, and continues to prove that its branded IP is the bread and butter of the entire theatrical business, no, theatrical isn’t in the hospital. Other studios also proved the vibrancy of theatrical with big swings, i.e., the R-rated comic book villain gamble that paid homage to Henry Portrait of a Serial Killer and Taxi Driver — we’re talking Warner Bros./Village Roadshow/Bron’s Joker — which unexpectedly became the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all-time with a global take of $1.063B.
And while the argument can be made that streaming is encroaching on low- to mid-budget fare and that the indie box office is endangered, we’ve seen such explosions from original movies like Universal’s Us ($175M), Sony’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ($141M), STX’s Hustlers ($105M), Lionsgate’s Knives Out ($110.3M) and Fox’s Ford v. Ferrari ($106M). On the specialty side, hits inlcude Neon’s Parasite, the highest-grossing South Korean movie of all time with $22.3M, and Fox Searchlight’s Nazi comedy satire Jojo Rabbit ($21M).
Non-Disney studios are looking forward to a true showdown at the domestic box office. Disney was always expected to crush it in 2019 with its franchise-built slate, a rampway to Disney+. Critics complain there’s not enough original fare. Well, 2020 will make good on that promise. If streaming has done the theatrical business any favors, it’s forcing major studio development execs think harder:
Many have already predicted that in the face of the major studio congloms, such mini-majors as MGM, Lionsgate and STX are challenged and merger buzz abounds. But while the industry may merge, what will not change is audiences’ appetites for original and unique fare, especially those from great auteurs like Quentin Tarantino, Bong Joon-Ho, Rian Johnson or even Sam Mendes (look for his one continuous shot WWI pic 1917 to ring in 2020 with a $20M wide opening on January 10).
Also, while chatter abounded in 2019 that Netflix nearly closed the wide-release theatrical window to 30 or 60 days with its theatrical release of Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, such haggling will be harder to pull off (and if so, arguably by Disney, as it did when it reduced the span from four months to three months with 2010’s Alice in Wonderland) now that Mookie Greidinger’s Cineworld has taken control of Canada’s Cineplex Odeon, becoming North America’s biggest movie circuit with Regal Cinemas already under its domain. As Disney beefed up its power with the acquisition of 20th Century Fox and Searchlight, so does exhibition by consolidating its power to haggle back.
Here’s a rundown of what went right and wrong and 2019, with an outlook for 2020. Box office calculations are a combination of Comscore and Deadline figures.
No. 1 Disney ($3.7 billion, +21% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: Everything, literally. It’s the third time it passed $3 billion, beating its own industry record set last year with $3.09B. Driven by Pixar/Disney Animation, Marvel, Lucasfilm and the live-action adaptations of its own Disney animated toons, nine pics surpassed $100M; seven of them made $300M, and five $400M+. Let’s not forget that two passed a half-billion stateside, with Endgame being the second-highest-grossing movie of all time in U.S./Canada with $858.3M. Seven Disney pics opened to $100M+, plus they scored the best opening of all time both worldwide ($1.22B) and stateside with Endgame.
No. 2 Warner Bros. ($1.558 billion, -19% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: Taking the R-rated comic book film to a gritty, brilliant level and reaping an enormous amount of box office at the same time with Joker at $333.5M stateside, $1.06B worldwide. It’s these types of auteur-driven bets for which the studio has a reputation, and that will always distinguish it within a Disney-laden IP market. It Chapter Two was a self-fulfilling prophesy coming off the great success of the first film with $211.6M domestic, $472M WW. And the studio built out its DC brand with the thrifty priced Shazam! at $140.3M domestic, $364.5M WW. Legendary’s Pokemon Detective Pikachu was a nice surprise thanks to Ryan Reynolds’ voice at $144.1M stateside, $431.7M WW.
No. 3 Universal ($1.51B, -16% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: The studio thrives on a diverse, auteur-driven slate and consistency under Filmed Entertainment Group chairman Donna Langley, hitting $1B-plus stateside for a ninth year in a row. It excelled in 2019 by sidestepping Disney on the calendar with M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass over MLK ($111M domestic) and Jordan Peele’s Us in late March ($175M). As Fast and Furious gears down, Uni has shown that it can pivot and adapt by building out that franchise with spinoff Hobbs & Shaw ($173.8M). That proved to be a promising start for a frosh franchise, holding No. 1 for four weekends at the worldwide box office on the way to a final tally of $758.9M.
While Uni doesn’t have the IP of Disney or the DC and Harry Potter pics like Warners, its filled the slate with original movies from unique storytellers. What was once programmed out of necessity is now a calling card for fresh filmmaking voices: Peele’s Monkeypaw label signed an exclusive five-year deal with the studio; one of the remaining big free agents, Lord & Miller, also inked a first-look, and Shyamalan announced his next two original movies with the studio.Uni also rebounded R-rated comedies to the best of any studio’s ability in the genre’s current theatrical drought with Good Boys ($21.4M opening, $83M) despite a risky concept starring largely under 12-year-old fresh faces. In sum, Abominable, Us, and Boys are the only original movies to open to No. 1 at the domestic B.O. this past year. DreamWorks Animation’s bread-and-butter comeback How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was also a bright spot at $160.8M domestic, $520.2M WW.
No. 4 Sony ($1.32 billion, +3% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: While Warner Bros and Universal saw annual declines in the face of Disney’s slate, Sony realized a small uptick thanks to its mix of sequels to rebooted franchises like Spider-Man: Far From Home ($1.1B WW) and Jumanji The Next Level ($450M WW to date), plus turning Quentin Tarantino’s original feature Once Upon a Time in Hollywood into an event; its the director’s fourth to cross $300M WW, and overall his second highest-grossing movie of all time with $372M. While Disney-Marvel’s Kevin Feige is the secret sauce to the Avengers-integrated Spider-man, Sony agreed to keep the series alive for a threequel with Disney taking a 25% co-finance equity stake and having Spidey cross over in another Disney-Marvel movie. Smart move. Also, the studio’s awards-season fare of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Little Women did much better than last year’s 4Q dogs, i.e., White Boy Rick, The Front Runner and 2017 carryover All the Money in the World. But overall, the upside with the Tom Rothman administration is that when it swings, it does so at an efficient cost, and minimizes risk even if it means taking on co-fi partners. A profitable year is what many outside finance sources keep telling us.
No. 5 Lionsgate ($768.5M, +98% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: The mini-major thrived in a Disney-dominated marketplace thanks to a marquee R-rated brand in John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum ($171M domestic), Rian Johnson’s original whodunit Knives Out ($110M-plus), and the final Tyler Perry movie under their umbrella, A Madea Family Funeral ($73.2M).
What Went Wrong: Lionsgate used to win over millennials, and still lacks that uber-franchise like Twilight, Hunger Games, or Divergent. Back in June, Lionsgate said it was in talks to bring Suzanne Collins’ Hunger Games prequel, The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, to the screen at some point in the future; the book goes on sale May 19. There’s also a big hole in losing Perry to Viacom. While some middle-grossing pics financially worked in their favor, i.e., Angel Has Fallen ($69M), there was a lot that didn’t work, i.e., the Seth Rogen-Charlize Theron screwball comedy Long Shot ($30.3M), Millennium’s Hellboy ($21.9M) and EuropaCorp’s Anna ($7.7M).
2020 Outlook: Mostly original, thrifty fare, which leaves a big question mark as to whether it will rally. Some highlights include the Christian-faith pic (a profitable sector for Lionsgate) I Still Believe, about singer Jeremy Camp starring Riverdale‘s K.J. Apa; the Janelle Monae unique horror movie Antebellum on April 24; and another attempt at comedy with Kristen Wiig-Annie Mumolo’s Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar. Among IP, there’s a complete Saw reboot with Samuel L. Jackson and Chris Rock on May 15. Unless it fills pics in its schedule, according to Comscore, the Deon Taylor thriller Fatale reps the last movie dated on Lionsgate’s schedule for 2020 on October 9. The continued buzz around town is that Lionsgate will merge at some point with another studio.
No. 6 Paramount ($563.4M, -26% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: Not much, except for mid-sized and low-budget movies that Viacom sees as profitable, i.e., Elton John musical Rocketman ($96.3M domestic, $195.1M WW), alligator horror movie Crawl ($39M, $91.5M WW, and the Walden Media-co-financed Dora and the Lost City of Gold ($60.4M, $119.6M WW).
What Went Wrong: After seeing a surge last year thanks to Mission: Impossible – Fallout, the highest-grossing title in the Tom Cruise franchise, and the explosion of A Quiet Place, two linchpin movies failed: the refurbished James Cameron-produced, Linda Hamilton-starring Terminator: Dark Fate didn’t have enough Shellac to impress the masses ($62.2M domestic, $261.1M), and the Ang Lee-directed Will Smith action film Gemini Man ($48.5M), a long-gestating project about warring clones. Both were Skydance co-productions and neither grossed in excess of $100M at the domestic B.O. With duds like the $90M-plus Wonder Park ($45.2M domestic) on the schedule, the Melrose lot remained in transition mode, still suffering from the sins of its previous exec administration.
No. 7 20th Century Fox ($554.75M, -49% vs. 2018)
What Went Right: Racing car drama Ford v. Ferrari was the only movie to work stateside, with $106M from big Fox ($200M+ WW), and that was under the new Disney regime with the pic taking off right out of Telluride and Toronto with great critical and audience response. Fox Searchlight had a bright spot with genre pic Ready or Not ($57.6M WW), and Toronto Film Festival winner Jojo Rabbit ($24M WW to date), which counts two SAG and two Golden Globe noms. The label’s year-to-date grosses also include $79.3M WW ($95.9M lifetime) from 2018’s Oscar-, Globe- and BAFTA-winning The Favourite. Searchlight remains an important label for Disney, as boss Bob Iger sees its product as being culturally relevant making waves at global festivals and within awards season. Searchlight can look forward to a fate on the big screen, while big Fox will split its development between streaming and theatrical.
STX added two $100M-plus-grossing pics to its library with the January hit The Upside ($108.2M) and the fall surprise Jennifer Lopez crime pic Hustlers ($105M), becoming its second- and third-highest-grossing films behind Bad Moms ($113.2M). Hustlers repped STX’s biggest opening at the domestic B.O. with $33.1M. Both pics took STX to $327.2M for 2019, +21% from 2018 making it their biggest year ever at the domestic B.O. since their launch in 2014. As rumors swirled around the company about its finance problems in the wake of UglyDolls tanking ($32.4M WW), Hustlers came as a great Band-aid and a reminder of the potential of what this distributor can do at the box office when it has the right pic, at the right price, priming the right demos. In Hustlers’ case it was diverse females. I’m continually told that STX has enough capital to keep itself alive, but has been seeking more capital to expand. Whatever it is, its fate will become more clear in 2020. On the horizon is Miramax’s Guy Ritchie action pic The Gentleman on January 24, Brahms The Boy II on February 24, and the Dave Bautista family comedy My Spy on March 13.
MGM and Annapurna formed a distribution and marketing joint venture this year in United Artists Releasing. Together, the labels made $280M at the domestic box office, +45% from their combined 2018 total. MGM found a new franchise in its near $200M WW-grossing animated pic The Addams Family. Look for MGM to have a huge 2020 with the new 007 movie No Time to Die (April 10), Bill and Ted Face the Music (Augusty 21), the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect (October 9) and Legally Blonde 3.
