Giannis Antetokounmpo is clearly going to be named the NBA MVP again, and deservedly so. He’s the No. 2 scorer in the league on historic efficiency from the floor (approaching 60 percent effective field goal rate, which means he scores about 1.2 points per field goal attempt, which is unreal) and he’s a top-three Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He’s making such an inordinate impact while playing less than 31 minutes per game. The Bucks are so good that there’s garbage time almost every night.
Stylistically, Antetokounmpo couldn’t be much more different than Stephen Curry, our last back-to-back NBA MVP. But Antetokounmpo’s impact is similar to what Curry did in 2015-16, when he became the league’s first-ever unanimous MVP. The Warriors were unstoppable that season, not unlike Milwaukee this season. The Warriors were built to accentuate and thrive off of Curry’s prodigious talents, not unlike how these Bucks are built around Antetokounmpo. And the star in the center of it held up his end of the bargain and dominated the season.
Like Curry in 2016, Antetokounmpo should probably be the unanimous MVP. (I’m sure he hopes the parallels end there and don’t spin all the way out to losing a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to a team led by LeBron James).
Antetokounmpo is clearly the MVP this season. Who else is going to make the top five, though? Here’s my assessment with about a third of the season remaining.
2) LeBron James
The Lakers are tops in the West. James has molded his offensive game and is leading the league in assists (10.7 per game). He’s engaged on defense, he’s done his part to install a culture of success — if you blamed James for creating the trade deadline tension last season, you have to give him some credit for creating a positive environment this year. He’s embraced Frank Vogel and brought Anthony Davis along as a public-facing star. If Antetokounmpo wasn’t so freaking good, there’d be a strong, well-earned push to get James another MVP. I think he’ll end up No. 2, and might peel a first-place vote or two away from Antetokounmpo.
3) Nikola Jokic
Denver is No. 2 in the West and threatening the No. 1 spot because of Jokic, period. Best center in the league (sorry, Joel Embiid) and among the top five players that are impossible to build a blueprint against. If you take away the sloppy first few weeks of the season, Jokic would have been an early leader for first team All-NBA. He should get there anyways. He might have an MVP in him in the next few seasons.
4) James Harden
Harden’s combination of scoring and efficiency is just incredible thanks to his unmatched talent at drawing fouls. Houston is actually good enough for Harden to get some MVP ballot consideration — if the Rockets finish strong, you could see The Beard get lots of No. 3 votes and maybe some No. 2s. It’s hard to ignore 35 points on 62 percent True Shooting. Harden might be in the process of eclipsing Kevin Durant and Curry as the best scorer of this generation.
5) Anthony Davis
Davis has to finish lower than James simply because the Lakers aren’t functional when James sits, even when Davis is on the floor. But it should be noted that Davis, like Antetokounmpo, is a high-scoring offensive mammoth who is a top-three Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Davis has been exactly who the Lakers expected: a powerful scorer, an impact defender and a total difference-maker that puts the team in title contention.
6) Damian Lillard
Lillard finished fourth in MVP voting two seasons ago and sixth last season. He seems destined for a similar fate. The difference this year is his team is no good. Individually, he’s been as good as ever, nearing 30 points per game on efficiency that ever-so-slightly nudges even Harden! The two are racking up assists at similar rates, while Lillard turns the ball over less. Their defensive performance is similar. Alas, Portland might not make the playoffs, so it’s easy to see other contenders get those third, fourth and fifth place MVP votes.
7) Luka Doncic
Doncic is the single young player this season for which you can look at his performance and declare that he will win the MVP some day. It’s just a matter of when.
8) Kawhi Leonard
There’s no way Leonard eclipses Antetokounmpo or even James in this race, but if the Clippers get right and sprint to the finish line heading into the playoffs, some voters might play it forward, remembering how Leonard dominated the postseason a year ago and give him some benefit of the doubt for LA’s early unevenness. He might get some third-place action if LA finishes strong.