The Toronto Raptors can clinch their first title in franchise history when they host the Golden State Warriors on Monday night. Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals tips at 9 p.m. ET from Scotibank Arena. The Raptors put themselves in position to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy by completing an unlikely sweep of Games 3 and 4 in Oakland, where the Warriors hadn't lost back-to-back NBA Finals games this decade.
Toronto posted a 105-92 win on Friday at Oracle Arena behind 36 points from Kawhi Leonard to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. Now, the Warriors need their second win in Toronto to salvage a chance at winning their third straight NBA championship. Toronto is a three-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 212.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Raptors odds. Before you make any Raptors vs. Warriors picks for Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered the 2019 NBA Finals with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them this season. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering the 2019 NBA Finals on a strong 85-61 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has honed in on Game 5 of Warriors vs. Raptors. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.
The model knows the Raptors will be determined to clinch the NBA title on their home floor in front of their adoring fans and, in the process, eliminate any hope for Golden State to extend the series. In Game 3, Toronto took advantage of a depleted Golden State lineup and rolled to a 123-109 victory. The Warriors were without Klay Thompson, who sat out with a hamstring injury. His absence magnified the loss of star Kevin Durant, who hasn't played in the NBA Finals 2019 because of a calf injury.
The Raptors appeared headed for a letdown spot Friday in Game 4 as they fell behind by double-figures in the first quarter against a Golden State club that was bolstered by the return of Thompson. But behind Leonard, the NBA Finals MVP front-runner, Toronto quickly overcame a four-point halftime deficit behind a 37-21 edge in the third quarter.
Toronto's defense held the Warriors to just 46 second-half points, while Leonard's teammates repeatedly made valuable contributions. Reserve forward Serge Ibaka scored 20 points in 22 minutes to go along with four rebounds and two blocks. Pascal Siakam had another strong outing with 19 points and five boards.
Still, there's no guarantee that Toronto will cover the Warriors vs. Raptors spread on Monday against a battle-tested Golden State club that tied for the NBA lead with 24 road wins during the regular season.
In fact, the Warriors are 7-2 away from Oracle Arena during the 2019 NBA Playoffs and closed out the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers with road victories. They won Game 2, 109-104, in Toronto.
In Game 4, they received a needed boost from Thompson, who scored a team-high 28 points and didn't appear to be hampered by his hamstring. Steph Curry added 27 points, six assists and four rebounds.