History suggests that when James senses he doesn’t have enough help to win, he goes and finds it elsewhere.
With the 2018 NBA Finals all but wrapped up, all eyes are turning toward the future of LeBron James, which is to say the future of the NBA. LeBron has led his team to the NBA Finals in each of the past eight years, so where James decides to play in the 2018-19 season obviously has major ramifications.
Frankly, LeBron’s decision could determine whether the Golden State Warriors will be challenged on their path a third straight championship next spring.
The Houston Rockets could very well be that challenge to Golden State’s hegemony even if LeBron stays in the East or joins a team not quite up to the Herculean task of dethroning the Warriors. That said, the Rockets have a tricky offseason ahead with big contracts due to Chris Paul and Clint Capela. Amid all that, Houston honcho Daryl Morey is said to be interested in chasing LeBron or Paul George, with fresh franchise CEO Tilman Fertitta committing to spending whatever it takes to knock down the Warriors.
Several free agents — including CP3, Capela, and PG-13 — could make or break the fortunes of individual teams, as free agents do every year. It is a rare player who can make or break the fortunes of the entire league, though. LeBron is one of those players.
So was Kevin Durant two years ago, when he chose the awesome Warriors over the rising Celtics and strong Thunder. Durant didn’t actually change the league so much as he built a magnificent, impassable moat around the Warriors: he strengthened what would already have been reality if not for the Cavaliers’ shocking upset in the 2016 Finals. (This is all made more delicious by the fact that Durant said he would not have chosen Golden State had they won that title. How many rings will the Warriors win by losing that year?)
If LeBron chooses Houston and the Rockets manage to somehow keep CP3 and Capela — and perhaps even if they lose one of them — the Warriors’ aura of inevitability, already pierced by JamesHarden and the gang this year, will disappear. If LeBron chooses the Lakers and manages to bring Paul George or another two-way all-star with him, the Warriors will remain the favorite, but the margin will shrink as a new contender enters the arena. If LeBron chooses the Sixers, the East will be thrown in tumult, but the Warriors will remain the favorite unless Philadelphia has a second trick up its sleeve. If LeBron teams up with a healthy Kawhi Leonard somewhere, reasonable people are going to pick against the Warriors.
Needless to say, LeBron’s free agency, just one month away, will turn the NBA upside down. That’s what makes the impossible task in these Finals so odd and striking.
LeBron will play god in July, yet he’s almost helpless in June. His team is getting run out of the NBA Finals for third time in five years.
The actual mechanics of the 2018 Finals resemble 2017: the Warriors are substantially better than the Cavaliers, even considering LeBron’s individual supremacy, and as a result Golden State will win easily. In 2017 there was a joyous, yet pointless Game 4 win for Cleveland behind Kyrie Irving, one that prevented the Warriors from painting the Q’s visitors’ locker room with champagne.
That’s probably not going to happen in 2018. The Cavaliers are spent.
Yet watching LeBron now actually reminds one of 2014. Those Spurs were incredible, and had come off that heartbreaking 2013 Finals loss to the Heat. Miami had won two straight titles, but looked more vulnerable than ever. LeBron was heading into free agency. A road Game 1 for LeBron’s team was completely bizarre (ring a bell?), with the A/C going out at San Antonio’s AT&T Center, leaving James with terrible cramps. The Heat lost. Miami managed to win Game 2 in San Antonio, but the Spurs swept up the next three (including two in Miami) as the Heat just looked completely overmatched.
By Game 5 of that series, LeBron — the best player in the world — looked helpless.
On Wednesday in Game 3 against the Warriors, LeBron — the best player in the world — looked helpless.
Now it’s time to get help.
Four years ago, that meant finding a younger core to embed himself in, with Cleveland offering a soft landing pad with Kyrie Irving and eventually Kevin Love. There were, of course, the emotional ties in Cleveland that won’t be a factor for any of LeBron’s outside suitors this year. There was all the weirdness around LeBron’s relationship with Pat Riley. No doubt those factors colored LeBron’s 2014 decision. No doubt non-basketball factors — like his relationship with Dan Gilbert, the fact that he delivered Cleveland a title, his apparent deep dislike for the Warriors — will play a role in LeBron’s 2018 decision.
But we’ve seen what LeBron does when he feels his team can no longer effectively compete: he finds help. He did it in 2010 to leave Cleveland, and he did it in 2014 to return. And it works: he’s won at least one title with each new team he’s joined in free agency.
Will he make it three, or will he stick it out in Ohio? We aren’t going to get a drop more real drama in these NBA Finals, but LeBron will make up for it in July, just like he did in 2014.