If Boston can’t win on the road, then it sets up an enormous Game 7 against a nearly unstoppable LeBron.
What the Boston Celtics have done in this NBA postseason — without Gordon Hayward all year, without Kyrie Irving since the last weeks of the regular season — is completely and utterly impressive, full stop. But it’s worth noting that the success they’ve accomplished has mostly come at home, which makes Saturday’s results not too surprising.
The Cleveland Cavaliers throttled Boston in Game 3, from an opening 20-4 run to the eventual 116-86 final score, a dominant win that brings their series deficit to just two games to one. But consider the fact that the Celtics are 10-0 at home this season, and now just 1-5 on the road, and this was a predictable result.
Boston relies on young players — Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and Marcus Smart, among others. It’s natural for younger players to feed off the energy of a crowd and feel more comfortable in a home environment, and given the road atmosphere of Quicken Loans Arena combined with Cleveland’s desperation, and it’s hardly a surprise that Game 3 played out the way it did.
In the regular season, the Celtics actually won one more game on the road than at home. Dive into the statistics, though, and you’ll see that was more luck than anything else. At home this season, Boston boasted a plus-4.8 net rating, much better than their plus-2.6 net rating away from TD Garden. They played faster at home, turned the ball over less, assisted more, rebounded better, and played offense with much better efficiency.
A team that’s better at home? This is typical.
But after Irving went down and the team’s two leading offensive players were young wings, it made sense that those splits became even more pronounced. If the undefeated home record doesn’t make it clear, the team’s much better there in front of their home crowd. They play faster and perform much better on both ends.
For the Eastern Conference Finals, that’s OK. They have had home court advantage throughout their slate of Eastern Conference games, for one. If Boston can steal just one game in Cleveland, they’ll be in the driver’s seat — or, if they can do it in Game 6, perhaps win the series. The Cavaliers’ role players also play better when they’re in front of their home crowd, and virtually their entire roster outside of LeBron James and Kevin Love is exactly that. But if they have one more collective down game, then Boston is primed to steal a victory.
That said, if the series continues playing out like it has been, with the home team having a clear advantage and winning those games, it would lead to a potentially legendary Game 7. Boston would have home court advantage, and they would have a long history of winning Game 7s at their place, where they are 31-8 all-time as a franchise. Meanwhile, LeBron James is pretty damn good himself: he has won five times in seven instances in his career.
Home court advantage is clearly something that exists, but it’s not a magical power that will prevent Boston from stealing one. They can do this, and Game 4 looms large for that exact reason. The best teams in the league win on the road in the playoffs, and Boston has been that in this postseason, without any qualifiers. As star depleted as they are, this team is damn good.
So don’t rule out Boston winning in Game 4 or perhaps Game 6, but be prepared for an epic and historic Game 7 showdown, one akin to the classic immovable object vs. unstoppable force paradox. Whatever it is, we can’t wait.