Lowry could leave Toronto after five seasons, so let’s examine the point guard market.
Kyle Lowry is a 31-year old who just played his best season in the NBA. In his first four seasons, Lowry looked like a fine backup, and in his next three, there was no question he was a perfectly adequate starting point guard. Only over the last four years has he emerged as a guard who can dominate on an excellent offense and average more than 20 points per game.
This summer, he’s a free agent, and for the first time in his career, Lowry will be one of the most important individuals on the market. (Lowry technically has a player option, but he said Monday he will opt out of it. It was a no brainer.)
The Toronto Raptors will presumably be interested in re-signing Lowry, but ESPN’s Marc Stein reported Sunday that there have been late season rumblings that the point guard will consider moving back to the Western Conference.
You’d think, given his gradual rise from role player to starter to star, that Lowry will likely be looking to cash out. At 31, this is probably his final big pay day, and Lowry has never made more than $12 million per season. Lowry’s max salary would start at $35 million per season, and this would be his last chance to capitalize on that.
Moving to the Western Conference may not make Lowry’s path to the finals any easier with the Warriors looming, but it would at least give him a change of scenery. Two years straight, Toronto has looked hopeless against LeBron James’ Cavaliers, and at least there’s no LeBron in the other conference.
Let’s be frank: the best landing spot would be San Antonio.
There’s no need to be coy; the Spurs are a top-four team in the league, they have arguably the best player in the league, they have unarguably the best coach in the league, and they need a point guard. Tony Parker turns 35 this month and has looked it, and now he’s recovering from season ending knee surgery. Patty Mills is a free agent, too, so San Antonio clearly has room to add someone.
But the max money doesn’t work unless two of the following three things happen: Pau Gasol declines his player option, the final year of Parker’s contract is stretch waived, and/or Danny Green is traded. (The nuclear option is trading LaMarcus Aldridge, but we won’t dive into that idea for now.)
The Gasol and Parker options would seem to be the most favorable outcome for San Antonio, but is it likely? Gasol is set to earn $16 million next year, more money combined than both seasons in Chicago, his last stopping point. Our hunch is he will really considering opting into that contract, since it’s a great place to play and since nobody is giving the soon-to-be 37-year-old a long-term contract.
If Gasol did decline his option, and if Dewayne Dedmon and David Lee did the same, the Spurs would have roughly $28 million in cap space. If anyone could convince Lowry into a pay cut, it would be the Spurs. But they don’t have max money without making a couple significant moves.