The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. We’re pretty much split on picking a winner between Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee, but less so with Johny Hendricks against Tim Boetsch. We still have four picking Boetsch, with two going with Tim after finding out about Hendricks’ latest weight miss. Most of us are picking Dennis Siver to beat B.J. Penn, and that’s a real sentence being typed in 2017.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he's going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Lee
Anton Tabuena: With Kevin Lee having won 4 in a row and 8 of his last 9 in the UFC, this could potentially be a breakthrough performance for him, if manages to pull it off. He’s headlining for the first time in his career, and with a good and entertaining victory, he could conceivably break into the top 5 or 6 in a division that currently has multiple contenders in limbo. Chiesa is obviously a very tough out, and could make it interesting on the ground, but I think Lee is better on the feet and well rounded enough to put a stamp on this. I think Lee takes this and opens the door to big fights for him. Kevin Lee by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Great fight and a really tough one to call. Chiesa has beaten better competition and Lee isn’t that far removed from an extremely puzzling loss on the feet to Leo Santos. The thing with Chiesa is he’s such a terrific opportunist. If he gets you in a scramble you’re almost destined to be tapping. Will Lee present him the same opportunities? I have my doubts. As far as the striking goes, Lee is still tangibly better and is best served going to the legs and to the body, because Sikjitsu guys have it ingrained in them that these strikes don’t hurt/aren’t important. I’m a fan of both guys and don’t think a loss damages either one too badly. Hopefully we get a great back-and-forth scrap, but I side with Kevin Lee by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Chiesa’s a gritty grappler that loves a flypaper approach and a very durable fighter. Taking on a guy like Kevin Lee is concerning, because Chiesa’s striking hasn’t really improved by that much for all the time he’s spent in the UFC. Not only that, but his striking defense remains rather porous. Then you add some of the more troubling comments from his striking coach regarding his refusal to teach how to check leg kicks and defend body shots, well… it’s not a good look. Lee’s a very dynamic athlete, a great chain wrestler and a really underrated boxer. Chiesa’s best chance is likely via submission, but it’s got to be some quick catch off a scramble, because he’s not getting anything off his back against Lee. Chiesa takes a beating in this one. Kevin Lee by TKO.
Beau Dure: Dude grieves for his dad on a nationally telecast UFC reality show, and Kevin Lee says something about his mom? Instant karma’s gonna get you. Michael Chiesa by KO.
Staff picking Chiesa: Bissell, Nick, Ram, Beau, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Lee: Victor, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Anton
Tim Boetsch vs. Johny Hendricks
Anton Tabuena: How in the world did this happen again? Hendricks has now joined a very exclusive list of UFC fighters who have missed weight in two divisions. Unlike the others in that club in John Lineker and Charles Oliveira, Hendrick’s two divisions are also 15 lbs apart instead of 10. Hendricks already hasn’t looked the same in the last couple of years after his title win, and with this making his 4th catastrophic weight issue, it just shows how his discipline isn’t there anymore. While he may still be the more technical fighter, coming in out of shape against a much stronger guy in Boetsch will only spell trouble for him. Tim Boetsch by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: I’ll still pick Hendricks even though he’s missed weight again, but I don’t care to see him fight anymore. Enough is enough. Johny Hendricks by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: This might be the fight where Hendricks finds his size limitations at middleweight to truly be a problem. Sure, he won’t have to cut much weight. But Boetsch is a big dude that’s going to make him carry weight and penalize Hendricks for sloppy entries. That redneck Judo thing is real, and he can turn the tables mighty quick if Johny’s not minding his Ps and Qs. Johny’s boxing is more solid, but he’s got to do more than just simple 1-2s. Also, Tim can really sting him with some hard shots, so that’s another matter to consider. Hendricks will be faster and more agile, and this is a fight he should win, but it’s not guaranteed. Still going to go with him on this one. Johny Hendricks by decision.
Beau Dure: Miss weight in another weight class? Instant karma’s gonna get him, too. Tim Boetsch by decision.
Staff picking Boetsch: Bissell, Ram, Anton, Beau
Staff picking Hendricks: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim
Felice Herrig vs. Justine Kish
Mookie Alexander: Herrig’s win over Alexa Grasso was really eye-opening and while I don’t really think she’s actual championship level material, she’s done more than enough to establish her place on the strawweight roster. I’m not really expecting this to be a barnburner, and as Victor said, Kish doesn’t really have any clear advantage over Felice apart from striking. Felice Herrig by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Kish certainly has an advantage with her striking, but Herrig is more complete and has really worked her overall game and her offensive wrestling doesn’t get much respect. I suspect Herrig will try to stand and trade with some clinchwork that leads to an eventual takedown. Herrig establishes control and keeps grinding for a decision win. Felice Herrig by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I've really enjoyed Herrig's resurgence. She's put together an infinitely more stable game than she used to have, and is far harder to throw off it. Kish is a bit difficult to get a bead on. She overperformed early, but then had that odd fight against Nina Ansaroff which very few people gave to her. I think her basic problem may simply be speed, and while Herrig isn't quite Tecia Torres, I think she is fast enough to be able to hit strikes and takedowns. Felice Herrig by unanimous decision.
Beau Dure: Karma owes Kish something good. But this is a tough one. Herrig has hit that upward part of the bell curve. Felice Herrig by decision
Staff picking Herrig: Bissell, Nick, Ram, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Anton, Beau
Staff picking Kish: Zane, Tim
Joachim Christensen vs. Dominick Reyes
Mookie Alexander: Dominick Reyes has won me over for life thanks to this KO at Legacy FIghting Alliance. Dominick Reyes by TKO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Christensen doesn't seem to be able to summon up the necessary dynamism to hang in the UFC. Difficult to get a strong read on Reyes, but at least he's disposing of not-great competition in the way that a talented fighter should. Also, he gave us THIS. Not only is it amazing, but it constantly reminds me of that ridiculous Goldberg call where he said something like... "He shook his head no... but he said 'YES my son!" Spencer Fisher perhaps? Anyway, I'm a simple man and it makes me laugh every time I think of it. Dominick Reyes by KO (headkick) round 2.
Beau Dure: I for one welcome our new former football-playing overlord. Reyes by KO, round 2
Staff picking Christensen: Bissell
Staff picking Reyes: Nick, Ram, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Anton, Beau, Zane, Tim
Alex Garcia vs. Tim Means
Mookie Alexander: Alex Garcia has had such a disappointing run in the UFC. He saved himself from getting cut with a violent KO over a very shopworn Mike Pyle, but those moments for him have been few and far between. I believe it’s Phil who coined the term “Budget Condit” for Means, and since actual Condit may never fight again, this is the next best thing. Garcia feels too much like an athletic specimen who hasn’t put together his game well enough to thrive at a high-level. Tim Means by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Tim Means has more accurate striking, but he also has better striking defense. Garcia’s had iffish fight IQ (or FightQ - hi, Eddie!) but his freakish athleticism always makes him a threat. Common sense should have me lean towards Means, but there’s no way the Dominican Dolph Lundgren is gonna go against Garcia today. Garcia probably nails him with a flying knee and walks off doing that Sammy Sosa kiss thing he’d do before he turned into a brolic version of one of the androids from Fallout 4. Alex Garcia by KO.
Phil Mackenzie: Means' last fight is more explicable now that he said he hurt his foot as per Tim's interview, because otherwise it was a complete head-scratcher. Why was he shooting takedowns on the vastly inferior striker? Anyhoo, Garcia has not really been able to synthesize his power into a broadly effective approach. Means is stupid tough so the big KO is probably out of the question, which means Garcia's going to have to walk through buzzsaws to take him down. Tim Means by TKO, round 3
Staff picking Garcia: Victor, Beau
Staff picking Means: Bissell, Nick, Ram, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Anton, Zane, Tim
B.J. Penn vs. Dennis Siver
Anton Tabuena: Siver is also getting up in age, and hasn’t fought in 2 years, making this a proper match up for B.J. Penn instead of just being fed to the wolves. This is the type of fighter that the UFC hall-of-famer would’ve easily ran through during his prime, but we’re wayyyyy past that. While it hurts me to type this, I’m not sure he even has anything left in the tank. I hope Penn proves me wrong and retires for good with one last victory, but history dictates otherwise. Dennis Siver by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Remember how Josh Koscheck was a favorite to beat Mauricio Alonso and then looked terrible and lost? This is how I feel about current BJ Penn. Just because he’s been losing primarily to high-level competition doesn’t mean he’s good enough to beat gatekeepers and fellow faded fighters like Siver. I think he’s truly finished and this will be sad to watch. Dennis Siver by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Finally, the fight that should have been made ages ago takes place. And Siver just might wax BJ, too. It all depends on what version of Penn we get. Will he be tippy-toes BJ like he was against Frankie Edgar in that third fight? Will he be gunshy and snakebit BJ as he was against Yair Rodriguez? Maybe an entirely different kind of thing at this point? I can’t trust him enough to pull this one out, and Siver’s underrated grappling and hard striking should get the job done. Dennis Siver by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The weird thing is I don't think BJ has ever really been that good at dealing with kicks. He benefited greatly from fighting people who almost entirely boxed with him. Siver is just as old and almost as experienced as Penn, but hasn't looked like his game has disintegrated to the same extent, so I sort of feel like he can just kick from the outside? As with many, many fights this weekend, if this was prime vs prime it would be very much another story, but Penn has looked withered and terrified in there and his interviews do not inspire confidence. Dennis Siver by unanimous decision.
Beau Dure: My oldest kid had just started first grade the last time Penn beat someone other than Matt Hughes. He goes to high school in two months. Dennis Siver by TKO
Staff picking Penn: Nick, Ram, Tim
Staff picking Siver: Bissell, Victor, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Anton, Beau, Zane
Clay Guida vs. Erik Koch
Anton Tabuena: Penn should’ve been matched up against Guida instead. Less chances of brain trauma for both of them. Erik Koch by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Clay Guida is physically past his prime and his notoriously sturdy chin has been compromised twice in recent years. He’s not as bad a striker as he used to be, but he’s not remotely close to Koch’s level. And Guida is going to be stuck if he can’t get a takedown. This will be a rout. Erik Koch by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Welp. I don’t see Guida outstriking Koch, nor do I see him taking Koch down. Eric will strike from the outside like it’s target practice and shut Guida down. Eric Koch by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: Do YOU like Anthony "Showtime" Pettis? Do YOU sometimes wish he was injured more often? Do YOU wish his brilliance was more inconsistent? Then boy do I have a fighter for you. In all seriousness, even if he never lived up to the hype, Koch is a good, dynamic threat. That said, I'd never pick someone as inconsistent as he is against a prime Guida. This is not a prime Guida, and I suspect he'll probably walk into a headkick or a guillotine or something at some point. Eric Koch by TKO, round 2.
Beau Dure: This hurts. Guida is one of those guys I bumped into several times when I was part of the traveling circus, and he’s never been anything but terrific. But this is his 50th fight (by some accounts, anyway), and no one peaks at that point. Erik Koch by KO
Staff picking Guida: Ram
Staff picking Koch: Bissell, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Anton, Beau, Zane, Tim
Vitor Miranda vs. Marvin Vettori
Victor Rodriguez: I don’t know why, but Miranda seems like he’s the harder hitter with less complicated movement. Whatever. Going with Miranda here. Lex Luthor by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: Miranda is a glass cannon- if he doesn't finish, he doesn't win. Vettori's physical durability is the main question then: it hasn't been tested all that much in the UFC, but he fought to the end in a close fight against a nightmare style matchup in Antonio Carlos Junior, and did far more damage than Shoeface did. He's a well-rounded, Kings-trained pressure fighter who does a good job of backing his opponents into the cage and a pretty fearsome top position grappler. Marvin Vettori by TKO, round 2.
Beau Dure: Italy vs. Brazil? Is this a World Cup? Marvin Vettori by submission, round 2
Staff picking Miranda: Victor, Zane
Staff picking Vettori: Bissell, Nick, Ram, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Anton, Beau, Tim
Carla Esparza vs. Maryna Moroz
Anton Tabuena: I’d be more confident in my prediction if this was a 5 rounder, but I’m still picking the upset. I think Moroz defends most of the takedowns and picks Esparza apart on the feet. Maryna Moroz by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Moroz is scrappy and surprisingly tough, but Esparza’s wrestling and solid top control can be a nightmare to be stuck under when she’s on point. There’s no indicator she won’t be come Sunday. Carla Esparza by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Esparza and Lima are basically there to hoover up the women that the UFC doesn't have much use for any more in this division, and to provide selection pressure to ensure that everyone in the division has a basic level of wrestling defense. I don't think Moroz can stop the takedown, although it does appear that they're becoming harder to come by for Esparza. Carla Esparza by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Esparza: Bissell, Nick, Ram, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Beau, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Moroz: Anton
Darrell Horcher vs. Devin Powell
Victor Rodriguez: This could get ugly. Gotta bank on Horcher using stifling top control to grind out an ugly win, but he’s going to struggle to get it there. He’ll do it, but it won’t be super flashy, so be patient. Darrell Horcher by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Horcher has developed into a skilled counterpuncher. While I think Powell is tough enough that Horcher can't finish him, his aggression will consistently walk him into shots in a fairly one-sided bout. Darrell Horcher by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Horcher: Bissell, Nick, Ram, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Anton, Beau, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Powell:
Jared Gordon vs. Michel Quinones
Phil Mackenzie: Jared Gordon is an aggressive sub grappler who punches his way into clinches and takedowns fuelled more by enthusiasm than skill. Quinones looks like one of the eternally frustrating Musoke-types who spends his athleticism and talent on waiting for a perfect shot. I do kind of like waiting around though. Michel Quinones by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Gordon: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Anton, Beau, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Quinones: Ram, Phil, Stephie
Johnny Case vs. Tony Martin
Mookie Alexander: What the hell is this fight doing on the Fight Pass prelims? Johnny Case by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Weird fight. Case is better in many quite obvious ways, but his fight against Jake Matthews was a real referendum on his athletic ceiling: he was winning pretty easily, until Matthews landed one clean body kick and crippled him for the rest of the fight. He can't hit hard, isn't hyper-durable, and thus has to win lots and lots of exchanges. Martin is much more physically gifted, but is just... strange. I used to think his problems were down to being too big, or acid reflux, but he really does seem to get stuck into bizarre, tense ruts, even when he's winning. Somehow I think he's going to win just by overpowering Case, though. Tony Martin by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Case: Bissell, Ram, Victor, Mookie, Anton, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Martin: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Beau
Jeremy Kimball vs. Josh Stansbury
Phil Mackenzie: I don't really know what Josh Stansbury's game is. Pawing jab and left hook mixup? Hope the other guy attempts to wrestle? Kimball seems to at least have some idea of what he wants to do, which is to blitz and reset. I don't expect this fight to be very good. Jeremy Kimball by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Kimball: Ram, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Beau, Zane
Staff picking Stansbury: Bissell, Nick, Anton, Tim