Christy Clark gets first chance to govern but how long can it last?
Canada

Christy Clark gets first chance to govern but how long can it last?

The B.C. election is over and Premier Christy Clark is now back at work running the province.

But things are far from normal. 

With the closest vote in the province's history behind us, Clark must now figure out a way to govern with 43 seats, one short of a majority government.

The B.C. election is over and Premier Christy Clark is now back at work running the province.

But things are far from normal. 

With the closest vote in the province's history behind us, Clark must now figure out a way to govern with 43 seats, one short of a majority government.

But at some point, she'll have to choose from a series of unpalatable options, including getting a firm deal with the reluctant Greens, taking her chance with a throne speech and a legislative session that could go up in flames or even a resignation.

Striking a deal 

The most obvious first step for the B.C. Liberal leader is to strike a deal with the B.C. Green Party. As the incumbent government, the Liberals get the first opportunity to show they can  keep the confidence of the house.  

If Clark gets the upstart party's support, she will have 46 votes in the legislature and enough to pass a throne speech and a budget.  

But even if she doesn't get the blank-cheque support of the Greens, she has other options.

Her own destiny

Former senator Hugh Segal has had a front row seat to many minority governments, including working as an aide to then Conservative leader Roger Stanfield while Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau governed in a minority situation and advising Ontario Premier Bill Davis during his minority stint. 

Segal says, for now, Clark holds her own destiny in her hands.

"Until, and when, she should decide to resign for whatever reason, she would have the right to meet the legislature to bring in a full government program to try to get a throne speech approved through a motion of confidence," said Segal. 

"Until such time as the present government tenders its resignation, there is very little precedent for the Crown calling on two other parties to form a government, when the incumbent government has won the largest amount of seats."

Taking her chances

It's likely Clark will go ahead and see if her legislative agenda can gather some support from the other parties.

The best example for Clark to look at is Ontario in 1985.

Conservative Leader Frank Miller won the most seats, but, with just four more than the Liberals, did not have enough to form a majority. 

The NDP held the balance of power with 25 seats. The Liberals and the NDP struck a deal, but Miller still went to the legislature to test the confidence. 

"The government, in that context, appointed its cabinet, brought in a throne speech, brought in a program and took an honest defeat in the legislature," said Segal.

Miller than resigned and Liberal Leader David Peterson and NDP leader Bob Rae worked together to govern.

'Come and get me'

Even if there was an agreement in place between the Greens and the NDP, Clark could prepare a throne speech that would indicate the Liberals are putting in policies that would be friendly to Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver and hard for his party to vote down.

But testing an alliance between the two other parties could come with a cost.

"She may want to actually meet the house and suffer defeat on a confidence vote. That's OK. She has that option to meet, and say here I am, come and get me, and it would be kind of exciting," said University of Toronto constitutional expert Peter Russell. 

"But if she asked me for advice, I would tell her look to see what the NDP and the Greens have agreed to, and, if it looks solid, don't waste everyone's time. B.C. needs a government and advise the Lieutenant Governor to swear in an NDP government."

Should she stay or should she go?

The other option Clark has is to advise the lieutenant governor that no parties are in a position to form a sustainable government and that another election is needed.

But that would mean, even though Clark doesn't feel she has the confidence of the legislature, she would still need to have the confidence of her own party to stay on as leader. 

"Lots of people are gunning for Premier Clark. And some of these may be inside her party, and there is a sense there is a stronger anti-incumbent sentiment than is typical in these situations," said University of British Columbia political scientist Richard Johnston.

"I have this sense the party is hers on loan, much more than say Gordon Campbell, and if she loses power in the end, we don't know whether she will, she may have a weak position within the party." 

But what's unclear is how long it will take for all of this to unfold.

Weaver has told reporters he hopes to have a deal in place by next Wednesday. And that's when Clark will likely have to start making the tough decisions.