Trainer Nacho Beristain is picking Gennady “GGG” Golovkin to knockout Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in their fight on September 16. Beristain says that if Canelo (49-1-1, 34 KOs) fights in the same manner that he recently did in his win over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. last month on May 6, then Golovkin will beat him, because he’s missing something from his game in the defensive side of his game.
Canelo won the fight against a very thin and weak looking Chavez Jr. by a 12 round unanimous decision. It wasn’t a close fight. Canelo won all 12 rounds. But when Chavez Jr. did throw shots, he was connecting. The problem was, Chavez Jr. was so weight drained from having to burn off a lot of weight to get down to the 164 ½ pound catch-weight for the fight.
Chavez Jr. didn’t have the strength to hurt Canelo, because he had started training camp at 215 pounds. Chavez Jr. lost 51 lbs. during training camp to get to his weigh-in weight of 164. When a fighter is forced to lose that much weight during a training camp, their chances of winning are slim, especially if they’re facing a good fighter. Canelo beat Chavez Jr. on the weight without having to do much of anything inside the ring on the night. Chavez Jr. looked physically ill during the fight.
”The only thing I can say is if Canelo fights like his did against Julio, I think Golovkin wins, because he leaves a little to be desired,” said Beristain to Fighthub.com. ”He’s a great offensive fighter but he’s lacking defensively.”
You have to respect what Beristain is saying because he knows boxing. He’s seen enough of Golovkin and Canelo’s fights to know who will be the one that will be winning their fight. Canelo’s lack of size and power is going to be his downfall in this fight. Canelo doesn’t have the tools to beat Golovkin. Golden Boy tries to even things out more by waiting Golovkin out until he was 35 and coming off of two back to back unimpressive performances, but they’ve misjudged him.
Golovkin is going to be too big, too strong and too experienced for Canelo to beat. Golden Boy wasted a lot of time with Canelo by not matching him against good opposition for most of his career. Canelo doesn’t have a lot of experience against good fighters, and he has zero experience at middleweight. You can’t consider Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland Amir Khan and Chavez Jr. as experience at middleweight.
Canelo has had it easy due to the soft match-making done by Golden Boy, and now he’s fighting the best fighter in the middleweight division in Golovkin. Beristain sees what a lot of knowledgeable boxing experts see in the Canelo-Golovkin fight. Canelo is underequipped to beat Golovkin. The only thing Canelo can hope for is the fight goes the full 12 rounds and goes to the scorecards. Canelo might win another controversial decision like the ones he on against Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara. A lot of boxing fans think Canelo should have lost both of those fights.
It’s not just defensively where Canelo is lacking. It’s his power for the middleweight division, and his stamina. Canelo doesn’t punch with the same kind of power that we see from the top guys in the 160 lb. division. Besides the lack of power, Canelo needs to take rest breaks against the ropes when he’s forced to fight hard. Canelo didn’t have to take rest breaks in his last fight against Chavez Jr., as he was fighting a guy that looked zombie-esque in the ring.
Canelo could afford to fight at a close pace without needing to rest with his back against the ropes. Canelo did take a couple of rest breaks during the Chavez Jr. fight when he intentionally backed up against the ropes. Canelo made it look like he was trying to draw Chavez Jr. out to get him to start throwing some actual punches. I believe the real reason Canelo rested with his back against the ropes was so that he could get a rest break and recover. Canelo’s stamina is so bad that he needs to take breathers whether he’s pushed hard or not.
What Beristain didn’t point out about Canelo’s performance against Chavez Jr. was how weak he looked. Canelo didn’t look powerful at the weight. Canelo looked like a junior middleweight that had moved up in weight to the 160lb division, but who didn’t bring his power with him when moving up.
Golovkin is a fighter who fights in the Russian way and it looks like it is easy to beat him but it’s not easy,” said Beristain. ”And I’ll give you two examples: the one who beat [Julio Cesar] Chavez Sr. and Miguel Angel Gonzalez very easily (Kostya Tszyu). They never understood the way he fights. And if they can’t figure out how to fight Golovkin, I think he can probably knock Canelo out,” said Beristain.
Gonzalez and Chavez Sr. were never going to beat a puncher like Tszyu. Let’s be honest about that. Tszyu beat both of those fighters based on extraordinary power. Gonzalez and Chavez were both good punchers, but they didn’t have the heavy hands that Tszyu possessed. Chavez Sr. was a very good puncher when he fought at super featherweight and lightweight, but when he started fighting at 140 in the light welterweight division, he didn’t have the kind of power that guys like Tszyu had. Gonzalez was more of a combination puncher rather than a fighter that would knock you out with sledgehammer blows like Tszyu.
Canelo is going to have problems for the same reason Chavez Sr. had problems with Tszyu. Canelo isn’t a natural for the weight class that he’s moving into. Canelo is not going to be able to match Golovkin for the kind of power that he has going for him. Canelo will never have the kind of power that Golovkin has. He’s someone that doesn’t come around too often.
Canelo is to have a lot of problems with Golovkin because all he has is speed to try and deal with Golovkin. Canelo can’t punch at 160. Canelo looks weaker than a lot of the fighters that Golovkin has already beaten. David Lemieux, Matthew Macklin and Danny Jacobs all look more powerful than Canelo. Even Martin Murray, Marco Antonio Rubio and Dominic Wade all likely have more power than Canelo.
The main thing that Canelo has going for him in this fight with Golovkin is his hand speed, and his counter punching. That’s all. You can’t say that Canelo has better boxing skills, because Golovkin has amazing skills. Golovkin has the far better jab, and he’s bigger, taller and stronger. Golovkin is also a natural for the 160 lb. weight class. Canelo is in the same position that Chavez Sr. was in when he fought Tszyu. Chavez didn’t have the kind of power that Tszyu possessed, and it was immediately clear that was not going to be able to compete in that fight. Tszyu looked gleeful in slowly breaking Chavez down with a smile on his face before stopping him in the 6th round. Golovkin isn’t the type to smile while he’s dismantling his opponents, but I suspect that inwardly, he’ll be smiling as he takes Canelo apart piece by piece and forces a stoppage at some point.
”We can say that Golovkin isn’t too strong but he hits very hard,” said Beristian.
Golovkin is obviously very strong, and he appears to hit a lot harder than anyone that Canelo has ever faced before as a pro. How is Canelo going to react in getting hit by someone with Golovkin’s power for 12 rounds. I don’t think it’s going to be good for Canelo, especially when he can’t take his rest breaks without getting hammered by Golovkin. Canelo might not last more than 2 or 3 rounds if he tries to rest against the ropes like he did against Liam Smith, Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Austin Trout.